Deal Forecaster

Sales pipeline forecasting and quota analytics for CRM revenue teams: forecast computes a probability-weighted pipeline total from a list of deals (amount x stage win-probability), grouped by stage...

deal-forecaster

An intelligent microservice adapter pack for sales pipeline forecasting and quota analytics. The math is deterministic and exact and runs fully offline. Only whatIf's optional narrative uses the shared LLM helper (when options.narrate is set and a model is reachable), and it silently falls back to a templated sentence otherwise. Hybrid results are tagged { mode: 'heuristic' | 'llm' } — the numbers are always exact regardless of mode.

Tools

Tool	What it does
`forecast`	Probability-weighted pipeline total from a list of `deals` (amount x win-probability), grouped by stage and owner, with top deals and open-pipeline breakdown.
`winProbability`	Maps a pipeline `stage` (lead, qualified, discovery, proposal, negotiation, verbal, closed-won, closed-lost) to a default close-rate %. Omit `stage` to get the whole map.
`quotaPacing`	From `closed`, `quota` and `daysLeft` (optional `daysElapsed`), reports attainment, run-rate, daily rate needed, projected attainment and a status (quota-hit / on-track / at-risk / off-track).
`categoryForecast`	Best-case / most-likely (commit) / worst-case scenario totals with the basis of each band.
`whatIf`	Re-scores the pipeline under hypotheticals (`stageShift`, `amountMultiplier`, `winRateDelta`, `includeStages`, `excludeStages`) and reports the delta vs baseline. Hybrid narrative.

Deal shape

{ id?, name?, amount, stage, probability?, owner?, closeDate? }

amount accepts numbers or currency strings ("$12,000"). If probability is omitted it is derived from stage; unknown stages default to a conservative 10%. probability may be a fraction (0.45) or a percent (45).

Usage

import pack from './index.js';

const deals = [
  { id: 'A', amount: 50000, stage: 'negotiation', owner: 'sam' },
  { id: 'B', amount: 20000, stage: 'proposal', owner: 'lee' },
  { id: 'C', amount: 80000, stage: 'lead' },
];

pack.adapters.forecast({ deals });               // weighted pipeline total + breakdowns
pack.adapters.winProbability({ stage: 'proposal' });
pack.adapters.quotaPacing({ closed: 120000, quota: 200000, daysLeft: 12, daysElapsed: 18 });
pack.adapters.categoryForecast({ deals });       // best / commit / worst
await pack.adapters.whatIf({ deals, changes: { stageShift: 1, amountMultiplier: 1.1 } });

DRY boundary notes

Not generic stats: numbers / statistics own series analytics (percentiles, anomalies). This pack

is CRM-specific pipeline math (stage→win-rate, commit/best/worst scenarios, quota pacing).

Not finance: no NPV / interest / loan math. This is revenue forecasting on opportunities.
Self-contained: no cross-pack imports except ../_shared/llm.js.